hi everyone its my first attempt at writing a blog,actually i dont have much work to do for today so i thought of blogging for the first time.well ,the topic which i have chosen may not interest many but this is the one i thought i can write about.Before expressing my views on the deal i would like to throw some light on the back ground of the deal.most of the facts given below can be surfed on net(ob!!)
Highlights of the deal
* The agreement not to hinder or interfere with India's nuclear programme for military purposes.
* US will help India negotiate with the IAEA for an India-specific fuel supply agreement.
* Washington will support New Delhi develop strategic reserves of nuclear fuel to guard against future disruption of supply.
* In case of disruption, US and India will jointly convene a group of friendly supplier countries to include nations like Russia, France and the UK to pursue such measures to restore fuel supply.
* Both the countries agree to facilitate nuclear trade between themselves in the interest of respective industries and consumers.
* India and the US agree to transfer nuclear material, non-nuclear material, equipment and components.
* Any special fissionable material transferred under the agreement shall be low enriched uranium.
* Low enriched uranium can be transferred for use as fuel in reactor experiments and in reactors for conversion or fabrication.
* The ambit of the deal include research, development, design, construction, operation, maintenance and use of nuclear reactors, reactor experiments and decommissioning.
* The US will have the right to seek return of nuclear fuel and technology but it will compensate for the costs incurred as a consequence of such removal.
* India can develop strategic reserve of nuclear fuel to guard against any disruption of supply over the lifetime of its reactors.
* Agreement provides for consultations on the circumstances, including changed security environment, before termination of the nuclear cooperation.
* Provision for one-year notice period before termination of the agreement.
* The US to engage Nuclear Suppliers Group to help India obtain full access to the international fuel market, including reliable, uninterrupted and continual access to fuel supplies from firms in several nations.
* The US will have the right to seek return of nuclear fuel and technology.
* Both the countries to set up a Joint Committee for implementation of the civil nuclear agreement and development of further cooperation in this field.The agreement grants prior consent to reprocess spent fuel. Sensitive nuclear technology, nuclear facilities and major critical components can be transferred after amendment to the agreement.
US interests in INDIA
* The US has decided to dephynate their relation and no longer balance India with Pakistan
* India seen as a potential strategic partner for its full range military operations
* US has differences with China on various issues like Taiwan, North Korea, US policy makers emphasize on the containment of China and the need to balance its power through countervailing forces
* The US views Russia as a failed state.
* India’s economic growth ,the large middle class and opening markets ,where India and US can have significant trade ,but the US wants greater market access.
* India’s greater military imports of which US wants a major share
* India’s need for energy which US thinks it can fulfill and as a result can pressurize India to forgo Iran pipeline which India speaks of as a peace pipeline
* The large and influential group of Indian americans that impact on US foreign policy
Economic benefits to US
* If India sets up 10 large size nuclear power plants, which is its intent in next 15 years, India will import technology and hardware from US for at least half of these projects (technology for the remaining may come from elsewhere). Each of these plants at a green field site will cost about $4 billion. In short, orders worth $15-20 billion could be placed with the US companies in next 6 to 8 years. Remaining orders may go to France, Germany, Canada and UK. Fund for these installations will come to India either in form of FDI or soft & commercial loans. Banks and equipment manufacturers abroad will be delighted to make this amount available to India. In return India will pay it back with goods and services export, in the same way China did it for the past 25 years. It is a win-win situation for the US lenders and US suppliers. Further expansion of business dealings on both sides will follow.
Another example of emerging Indo-US co-operation is in the area of aerospace industry. Order for $8 Billion worth of commercial airplanes has been placed with Boeing of Seattle. Another big order for 125 military planes is on the way. US parliamentarians have to work these big business deals in their thinking prior their vote.
The high tech manufacturing industry is at a take off stage in India. In last 3 months, announcements by big US companies totaling $7 billion dollars investment have been made. This has gone far beyond India’s expectations. This sector together with IT services and BPO will power the US industry and businesses into higher profitability and help India accelerate its growth.
Co-operation in auto parts, pharmaceuticals, R & D and defense industry cannot be ruled out. For each of these US is looking for a low cost supplier, that could be alternative to China.
Benefits for INDIA:
Benefits to India are immense with this deal. First and foremost, is the de-facto recognition of India as a nuclear power? It is not clearly stated in the deal, but it’s an implicit understanding. India missed this opportunity in 1970-78. It is unlikely that this opportunity is to be missed again. Second, is future recognition of India as a permanent UN Security Council member? India has tried this in last three years. It has not succeeded. It is unlikely to succeed in next 10 years. But with a Trillion and a half dollar economy (8% growth over ten years), India will make this grade. When UN reforming movement gains strength in the future, India will be right there and waiting for this opportunity
Economic benefits to India:
There is an urgent need in India for capital to build its infrastructure and manufacturing base. And there is only one source to get it i.e. US & Europe. US and Europe at this moment are content with sending capital to China to supply them with consumer goods. The former very cleverly had avoided exporting manufacturing technology to supply high priced, high technology capital goods to China. This component together with auto-parts, pharmaceuticals and computer hardware could herald India into big leagues in ten years and beyond. Commercial Aircraft manufacture, ship building, factories to make giant power plants, steel making plants, mining & drilling hardware, petroleum & petrochemical plant building facilities could be ultimately shared with India. The latter within ten years will have a workforce sufficiently skilled to undertake all the foregoing. It will be beneficial to US. Labor costs in India, will always stay a third of US, and European costs. That will make India an ideal candidate for this technology transfer.
Opportunity of the KPO (Knowledge Process Off-shoring) is knocking at India’s door. Indian graduates of Science and Engineering will play a major role in this expansion. In about 5 years KPO Off-shoring will grow immensely. India stands to benefit most from it. Thanks to the edge, Indian science & technology graduates have established.
THE CHINA FACTOR
The Chinese unhappiness with the US, notwithstanding, their comments appeared to acknowledge that India bargained hard for a deal that was in its national interests and was entitled to what it got. Similarly, the US too had acted in its own national interest. But where the Americans, and the Indians, might err, is in thinking that Chinese national interests have necessarily suffered as a result of the deal. On the contrary, the largely moderate Chinese response to the Indo-US deal opens several avenues for China to engage with the US and India. The Chinese might yet find ways of turning the situation to their advantage. Indeed some of these approaches are already evident.
Implications for Global Climate Change
The debate over the India nuclear deal has been too one-dimensional. Nearly all commentary has focused on whether this proposal would undermine efforts to contain the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Dissent along these lines has been based on a series of largely overblown claims. And the singular focus on proliferation has allowed the debate to lose sight of other ways that this deal is in the interests of the United States and India alike.
Chief among those other reasons is environmental. The fuller use of commercial nuclear power, if done to exacting standards of safety and protection against proliferation, can play an important role as part of a larger strategy to slow the growth in emissions of the gases that cause global warming. That’s because nuclear power emits essentially no carbon dioxide (CO2), the most prevalent of these so-called “greenhouse gases.” While this benefit is hardly the chief reason for initiating this deal, with time it will become one of the main benefits from the arrangement. The nuclear deal probably will lead India to emit substantially less CO2 than it would if the country were not able to build such a large commercial nuclear fleet. The annual reductions by the year 2020 alone will be on the scale of all of the European Union’s efforts to meet its Kyoto Protocol commitments. In addition, if this arrangement is successful it will offer a model framework for a more effective way to engage developing countries in the global effort to manage the problem of climate change. No arrangement to manage climate change can be adequately successful without these countries’ participation; to date the existing schemes for encouraging these countries to make an effort have failed; a better approach is urgently needed.
Conclusion:
The proclaimed benefits of the Indo-US nuclear deal are unexceptionable. Firstly, we would become eligible to receive nuclear fuel from the Nuclear Suppliers Group. This would enable us to build and operate nuclear power plants. The power plants are as it is stated required to meet the shortfall in electricity production and also provide our rapidly growing demand for energy. Secondly, the deal would also enable us to access nuclear processing technology. The spill over benefits of such technology would be considerable.
Thirdly, we would gain entry - maybe somewhat informally - into the exclusive club of nations possessing nuclear weapons. Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, is the prospect of placing our strategic relationship with the world’s sole superpower on a higher plane.
Notwithstanding the obvious advantages of the deal, there is considerable opposition to it. The Nation would be faltering if the arguments against the deal were not listened to or were not critically examined. Brushing aside issues merely on the grounds that the person making the observation is commenting on matters outside his or her field of expertise would reflect a clear lack of maturity and more importantly - may lead to compromises on matters affecting national interests.
In a conceptual framework what should our nuclear weapons capability be? As a first step we should aim at creating a nuclear force that is sufficiently potent to deter other nuclear weapon powers from attempting to coerce or threaten us. This is achieved by having the capacity to retaliate (in response to a first strike by the adversary) and inflict unacceptable damage on such states in the event of a conflict. The more important element of this capability is that all other nuclear weapon states are aware of this capability and recognize our determination to use it if the need arisesWe now revert to the core issue of the debate over the nuclear deal. All the objectionable clauses in the deal pertain to two concerns. Firstly, is the attempt to limit our production of fissile material for warheads and secondly, is the attempt to prevent us from improving the quality of our bombs. On both counts we must not compromise.
Finally, is the deal good or bad? Clearly the deal is acceptable provided we can build the number and types of bombs we believe necessary for our security. While determining the force structure it would be prudent to over insure and not work on some kind of a minimalist approach for that may not give us the security we seek.
